As the recalled French Ambassador noted, “every crisis is an opportunity.”
The proposition of the Thucydides Trap is that the chances of war increase when a state comes closer to becoming the new hegemon. China and the U.S., when evaluated as offensive realist powers that prioritize power as a precursor to national security, are moving towards the dangerous prospect of a military conflict.
As the administration in Iran shifts from placid reformist Hassan Rouhani to long avowed hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, the attitude towards Saudi Arabia treads a novel path.
The lack of political will and neighboring cooperation to promote integrity inevitably ensues havoc within a country—such as mismanagement of natural resources, poverty, and social unrest. This is a state of affairs that Central America has cyclically encountered.
“Theories of history, fundamental beliefs about how the world works, are usually assumed rather than argued and rarely get subjected to serious scrutiny. Yet these general ideas set the parameters for all the specific policy choices an administration makes. Know an administration’s theory of history, and much of the rest is easy to fill in.”
– Gideon Rose
Despite international calls for conflict resolution in Yemen, the United States has played a significant and damaging role in its current crisis.
Big-stick Politics: how the Biden-led airstrikes in Syria demonstrate the United States’ continued hard power stance in the Middle East
While Washington is unlikely to remove all economic sanctions imposed on Iran, only time will tell which country will give in first. Even though the United States continues to carry a big stick, at some point some compromise from both sides must occur.
The power vacuum in Syria and the influence of rival players urges the U.S. to protect its interests in the region by rebuilding the country’s social infrastructure with very limited violence.
As Biden begins his first 100 days in office, environmentalists around the world are watching closely.
In the op-ed, Biden also promised a push towards North Korean denuclearization and a unified Korean peninsula. Biden’s ability to deliver on this promise will depend on North Korean economic recovery, domestic priorities, and relations with South Korea.